The John Kenel Show

Final Property Development Club podcast for 2025! Andrew Crosby joins me to wrap up the year and look ahead to what's coming.
 
We dive deep into the government's new development levies system - how it'll replace development contributions and what it means for developers. Plus, economist Cameron Bagrie's bombshell claim that we're actually overbuilding in New Zealand right now (34,000 consents vs 20,000 homes needed).
 
Andrew shares his LinkedIn poll results, we cover contractor availability, the two-tier market, and why some suburbs are up 10%+ while townhouses struggle.
 
Also: Goldman Sachs predicting gold at $5,000, rates caps for councils, and why everything might actually get fixed in 2026.

I've been investing in property since 1997 and developing since the early 2000s. I've seen every boom and bust. Here's my take on where house prices are heading in 2026.
 
I break down the three key drivers: interest rates, immigration, and confidence, plus what could derail things.
 
Learn the 17-step development process in 42 short videos with The Property Development Club: https://thepropertydevelopmentclub.com

People joke Gen Z will own nothing and be happy. They won’t be happy. If we keep tilting rules toward big corporate landlords, ownership concentrates and everyone else rents.
 
I’ve built more than 1,000 homes in NZ. Most were made possible by private investors backing real projects. That’s how we actually add supply.
 
In this video: why private landlords matter, what build-to-rent does and doesn’t solve, how student debt and low wages delay deposits, and what policies and practical steps would put Gen Z back on the ownership path.
 
Learn the 17-step development process in 42 short videos with The Property Development Club: https://thepropertydevelopmentclub.com

Queenstown’s on a different planet: $30m sales, talk of $100m builds, and a wave of $5m+ buyers.
 
Meanwhile in Auckland you can still find new townhouses around $599k.
First-home buyers are 27% of the market.
The NZD sits near 0.56 USD, 0.86 AUD, 0.45 CHF.
Consents are up, concrete pours are still down.
And Auckland’s MDRS flip has blindsided projects.
 
We cover Queenstown’s ultra-lux market, FHB momentum, investor sentiment, rents easing 3% to $628, Waikato vs Waipa prices, and whether apartments and leasehold stack up. Plus the council red tape that kills confidence.
 
Learn the 17-step development process in 42 short videos with The Property Development Club: https://thepropertydevelopmentclub.com
 
Education only, not financial advice. #johnkenel #assuredproperty

If Labour’s CGT lands, rental supply falls, rents rise, and redevelopment grinds to a halt, here’s what to do.
John Kenel’s take on Labour’s proposed Capital Gains Tax. No fluff. Practical consequences for landlords, developers and investors.
What I cover:
• Why Treasury modelling points to roughly a 5% immediate rent rise.
• How targeting property only will shrink rental supply and clog redevelopment.
• Small business and home-office carveouts that may be lost.
• Why local trades and councils lose out when capital leaves for offshore shares.
• Practical steps: re-run feasibilities, check ownership, consider timing and restructuring.
Learn more at thepropertydevelopmentclub.com.
Subscribe for developer-grade insights, not fluff.
#johnkenel #assuredproperty #capitalgainstax #propertydevelopment #nzproperty #housing #developers

Builders, investors, and council-watchers: Hon. Tama Potaka, associate Minister for Housing joins John Kenel to tackle housing bottlenecks, consents, infrastructure funding, council (in)efficiency, emergency housing, and the granny-flats policy. They also unpack GST sharing ideas, water entities, and why certainty matters for development.
Education only, not financial advice.

Is New Zealand really a safe haven for anxious millionaires—or just political window dressing? In this wide-ranging chat, John Kenel (21 years, 1,000+ homes built) and Darcy dig into:
• NZ’s “Active Investor Plus” $5m visa, why demand may be limited, and a fairness take on foreign-buyer levies• Cost-of-living angle: using a levy to fund GST-off-food• Immigration settings vs “tax the rich” politics, and Australia’s Division 296 super tax• What “rich” even means now (and why $2–3m is just middle class housing)• De-globalisation and tariffs, then AI as a deflation engine for small business• Gold + Bitcoin as “sound money” and a hedge against money printing
Chapters00:00 Intro01:18 NZ as a safe haven, $5m visa, foreign-buyer levy, GST on food12:23 Immigration settings, Division 296, “what is rich?”24:21 Tariffs & de-globalisation → AI deflation → Gold & Bitcoin38:39 Where to find John + course
If you’re building, investing, or just trying to protect your savings, this one’s for you.
Follow John on TikTok, YouTube, LinkedIn, Instagram  @johnkenelCheck out John’s Property Development Club course to learn step-by-step residential development.
Disclaimer: This conversation is for education only and is not financial advice.

In this mini podcast episode — just 5 minutes — I chat through what’s really going on in the market right now and why I reckon this could be the perfect time for property developers to get moving.
We’ll look at what’s shifting, what it means, and how smart developers can make the most of it. I’ll share a few strategies, a couple of things to watch out for, and hopefully give you a bit of clarity if you’re thinking about your next move. Whether you’ve done a few projects or you’re just starting to look into development, there’s something in here for you.

If you own a modest home, you're now in the firing line. This video exposes why the lefts “Tax the Rich” spin is setting Kiwis against each other while the ultra-wealthy keep buying up more assets.
 
For more Property, Economics and Political commentary Watch more of my videos on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@JohnKenel
 
💡 Want to get ahead financially? Check out my free ‘Build It Up’ series on YouTube — a no-fluff financial literacy series for Kiwis who want to build real wealth over time. 👉 Watch now: https://youtu.be/g4wvLtxV7wU?si=A0MiIfYMvczqjq82
 
 #johnkenel #assuredproperty #propertyinvestment #developmentstrategy #nzhousing #wealthcreation #nzinvestors #taxtherich #wealthtaxes

If you're feeling stuck, uncertain, or just plain frustrated with where the property market’s heading — this episode will shake you awake.
In this action-packed episode of The Property Development Club Podcast, John and Andrew dive deep into:
Whether house prices are actually affordable or it’s all smoke and mirrors
Why youth unemployment is sitting at a shocking 18% in Auckland
The rise of robots like "Flippy" and what it means for young workers
The return of investors and where they're quietly buying
John Key's call to slash rates by 100 basis points — and why John agrees
Council rates, rising power prices, and why inflation is out of your control
Bitcoin vs Property: Would you sell your family home for crypto?
Why NZ must attract global wealth instead of pushing it away
What’s holding back construction — and what could get it moving again
It’s blunt, insightful, and full of sharp takes you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a first-home buyer, investor, or just watching from the sidelines — this episode is your cheat sheet for what’s really going on.
Watch the full podcast video on my YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/@JohnKenel
👉 Ready to learn property development from someone who’s built over 1,000 homes? Visit www.thepropertydevelopmentclub.com for access to John's 17-step course and start today.